Sevan Matossian (00:01):
Spam we’re live. I thought only women had dreams. I had a dream. I was running snakes over in my car and I met Savon and then he fingered me. What do you think it means? Oy, ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Ken Walters and Jeffrey Birchfield in their new band.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Let’s up with F in the Can and top. Emma still looking block coming into the men when it pop off the blocks on Off. I still make the drop off and they could try to take a couple of bands. I won Make a Mosh pit, but I’ll be rocking the Mads. Then I’ll built like a bottle and if they try to pop caps, I’ll be not match.
Sevan Matossian (00:35):
Hit it. Ken,
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Puff up your chest. Get smoke cigar, pull strings like a bloke from the GI one. Cool. Get left in Aune in the sand in Kitter Band. Bricks in between W Great bricks, bits on a D wall, bands, bits to the boys in the Midlands passing the rock like a speed ball I up with in the can
Sevan Matossian (00:56):
Top. My God, that’s the greatest thing on Instagram right now. Holy cow. I have a future Aaron.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
You do?
Sevan Matossian (01:10):
Yeah, they can check it out.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Still off the off. Still make the drop off. And they could try to take a couple of bands. I make a mosh pit, but I’ll be rocking the match then I’ll like a bottle of, and if they try pop caps,
Speaker 3 (01:25):
I’ll be not match Smoke cigar pull strings like ake from the one. Cool. Get left in Aune in the Sands and Kitter. My God.
Sevan Matossian (01:40):
How old are they? 80? What? I don’t know, but man, are they like 80? They’re so good. And it’s filmed so well. Oh my God. What’s up, dude? Aaron? No, not Aaron. Aaron, Jen.
Aaron Ginn (01:54):
Yeah, that’s right. Yeah, like a drink with the drink.
Sevan Matossian (01:57):
Yeah. Yeah. I had a talk with myself this morning. I was like, Sevy, get it right. Do it. Perfect. Aaron Jen, before I met Aaron through Greg Glassman, Greg was completely blown away at a medium article that Aaron wrote many years ago as one of the first people to scratch his head and be like, COVID.
Aaron Ginn (02:18):
Yeah, lockdowns. Yeah.
Sevan Matossian (02:20):
Math Covid. Yeah, exactly. Fauci. Yeah. It wasn’t math thing. Did you see the new movie?
Aaron Ginn (02:27):
No. What movie? Well,
Sevan Matossian (02:29):
One about, there’s a new Dr. Fauci movie that came out, I think yesterday. Everyone’s sending me links to it being like, dude, it’s the greatest thing ever. People are just going,
Aaron Ginn (02:37):
Okay, check it out. Okay.
Sevan Matossian (02:38):
It’s probably the book, right? It’s probably RFKs book. Just in movie form I’m guessing.
Aaron Ginn (02:44):
Oh, okay, okay. Yeah. Not the one about the he made about himself. I knew about that one. It’s the documentary about himself. Yeah. It has a thousand reviews and most of ’em are one star. Yeah. So not that one. Okay. Like a different one.
Sevan Matossian (03:01):
Hey, have you ever read the Kenneth Star report?
Aaron Ginn (03:06):
Yes, I have the one back in the day.
Sevan Matossian (03:10):
Yeah. I’m going to do a whole show on that soon. I cannot believe what I’m reading. I read it for the first time yesterday at lunch while I drank down three margaritas. I cannot believe the detail. It talks about how he leaned on the door because his back hurt when he used to get head. And I mean, it’s just crazy. It talks about the number of times he ejaculated and I mean, I just can’t even, she ate his ass.
Aaron Ginn (03:38):
Yeah, it’s rather intense.
Sevan Matossian (03:42):
I’m at lunch with my mom and I’m looking at my sister. I’m like, I don’t know if this is lunch talk.
Aaron Ginn (03:48):
And the media downplays it. It’s just like it’s some random fluke that sort of happened. Yeah, no, I mean, what’s the right word for to say? When the Republicans called Clinton making the White House of Brothel, it was based on this sort of stuff. So it wasn’t just a random fluke of, oh, we’re really late night working in the situation room. It’s like it was a very elaborate sort of level of detail now. Often happened.
Sevan Matossian (04:20):
Yeah. I guess there was only one place where he could do it privately and it was leaning against a hallway door or something. And I was tripping on this. I stole this from a comedian. I was listening to a comedian yesterday, but he was like, Hey, what if Hillary would’ve been elected? She’d be in that room where her husband was just cheating her on her. The reg. That would be weird.
Aaron Ginn (04:43):
Yeah, yeah, yeah. My husband cheated on me. Yeah. The thing is that was always a marriage based on power. Right. But yeah. How have you been? You’ve been doing well.
Sevan Matossian (05:00):
I’m great. I’m great. I’m excited for tomorrow. I’m tripping. I was looking at the Vegas odds. What do you think about the Vegas odds got Trump, just trouncing, Kamala, do you have any thoughts on the vagus odds? What they mean?
Aaron Ginn (05:18):
So what people don’t understand with polling data and pulling math is it’s always a function of assumptions that every one of these polls, every way that this less the data, it assumes a different turnout model, which you could be like in Covid world. It’d be like how does this thing actually spread in terms of that’s how they build all these assumptions and then give you a percentage of take rate, which would be like which side gets what in terms of Kamala or Trump. And yeah, what’s really surprising about the selection is that there’s basically three core scenarios. It’s either the polls are very wrong in the opposite direction and there’s this hidden Kamala underground voter people or something like that, that people don’t want to say they’re voting for Kamala. And that scenario she’ll win by 10 electoral votes. The polls are right. And then Trump wins by 15 to 20 electoral votes. And then the polls are normally wrong in the same direction. It’s been wrong in the last 12 years. And then Trump wins by 40 to 50 electoral votes.
(06:27):
And that scenario analysis is actually done by the New York Times. So they just called Trump a Nazi less than a week ago. So it’s not like they’re incentivized to restate this. I would say the killer thing to know that this is a very most likely probable Trump election is the early ballots, is the early returns, early vote. And what you’re seeing is that Trump is hitting his 2020 numbers as in Florida, he surpassed a hundred percent of 2020 Pennsylvania, a hundred percent of 2020 to look at Democrats. They’re barely hitting 60 to 80% in the early vote. So every single, why is Pennsylvania red, right? Well, this is a betting for guests, but why is Kamala spending her last days in Pennsylvania? Because there’s literally no map without that with her. Trump actually has a few options now, but without Pennsylvania, there’s no hope for her election. But if you look at the early returns under Biden, they had 1.1 million ballots that were returned. Of course, we don’t know exactly what they voted for. These were just dims
Sevan Matossian (07:43):
In what
Aaron Ginn (07:43):
State? In Pennsylvania.
(07:45):
Pennsylvania. So that’s called the dim wall, right? Because election day is always Republican biased, as in 10 to 15 points are outsized Republican turnout on election day. So Democrats in Pennsylvania, they need thousands, thousands of votes to be submitted before election day. So under Biden, they had 1.1 million more votes going to election day than they have for Republicans. This time around, they have barely 400,000. So if you’re looking at a plus 10, plus 15% more Republicans showing up election day. And generally there’s another, let’s say two to 3 million votes out there for Pennsylvania. That’s why she’s going to lose Pennsylvania is because there’s nothing. There is very depressed turnout on her side. And by the most interesting demographic that is driving the decline is African American. The black vote, the black vote’s not coming out for in North Carolina, Georgia.
Sevan Matossian (08:44):
The brother have made the switch. The brothers have made the switch.
Aaron Ginn (08:48):
So if you look at female male splits is basically about the same. North Carolina, Georgia, it’s really minority of Blackfoot. They’re not turning out for her. Will they
Sevan Matossian (09:00):
Protected, I think the black guys are losing their protected status class. Do you think that they’re going to be, let’s say she does win. Do you think they’ll be punished for that?
Aaron Ginn (09:10):
You mean the no hierarchy
Sevan Matossian (09:13):
Of protection? You know what I mean? It’s like there’s white dudes at the bottom. Well, they got Asians down there now too. They threw the
Aaron Ginn (09:20):
Asians. I’m white adjacent. Yeah, yeah. It’s like,
Sevan Matossian (09:23):
But if you have some weird sexual deviation, you’re at the top and then it’s like a woman with weird sexual deviation and then some gay guys. But blacks used to be in the mix. Black men, I don’t think they’re anymore. I think that they’ve really fallen in the protected class ladder.
Aaron Ginn (09:42):
I think it’s more related to that. Whenever you remember the whole black jobs controversy of early on the campaign and Trump made an issue about her race. So I lived in California for, I dunno, eight to 10 years, and she was known as an Indian senator and she was my senator. She was my age. So what he was saying in whatever uncooked manner, because Trump never wins in style points, but he always is directionally correct. It is true. And then if you look at her performance in California with African Americans, it was always bad. So he actually was saying something that was true in a manner was an un, you could say way. But the thing with why that was a wrong thing to play with the media is that in this election, Trump is more popular and more widely accepted in Republican and among independents than ever before.
(10:39):
If you look at his, you can say acceptability rating, it’s the highest it’s ever been, which is kind of like not what the media makes you want to think it is, but if you look at an insider stat that you can look at is how much disgruntledness do you have towards her candidate? If you look at Harris, her disgruntledness of what percentage of people in her party who voted said they have some issue with their candidate, right? It’s over 60% of people who voted for so far. And the Republican on Trump side, it’s basically under 50 now. So we’re basically trending towards 40. So it’s another mark of enthusiasm as well. But the thing is, all the Trump stuff of him punching at the wrong person or saying something improper is already baked in. But when you saw the second debate with Harris, it wasn’t like you were super shocked.
(11:41):
You’re like, oh, that wasn’t the way I would’ve handled that situation. But Trump, you just kind of move on with life. But Harris, you totally forgot that she was at the debate. The last 30 minutes was him and the moderator and Harris didn’t say anything. And that was a huge L for her is that it’s not just being anti something to win presidency. You really can’t win on that. It’s a very hard case to make the most people in presidential politics, you vote for somebody, you don’t vote against somebody. And if you don’t like someone at the top ticket, most people just don’t vote. It is not like the House and the Senate. The House and the Senate is structured differently where that can be more of an ebbs and ways against somebody, especially on the house side. On the house side, it mostly trends to the opposite of what’s happening on the presidency.
(12:30):
And so if you don’t like the president, you basically vote for the other party in the house because no one really knows who their house rep is. So it’s more about party identification, but for the presidency it doesn’t really work that way. And when she left that after that second debate, her first you walked away with, I don’t even know who this person is, and then they read the whole fake campaign of joy, which was always total nonsense. She’s always been the most, she was in the Senate shows was the most unlike people in the Senate. Again, as ag almost unlike people as attorney general and vice president, the most unlike one, the most unlike the most unpopular, more popular than Mike Pence on Trump. She goes, you’re trying to make this weird thing that was totally fake. She should have ran as her law and order, I’m doing anything to win sort of newsom stuff.
(13:20):
She should have ran as a female version of Newsom, which is, I’m a chameleon, I do whatever I want to win. And that’s the way it is and should have owned it. Instead she was this, oh, I’m tough on the border. What the hell Nonsense was that, right? It’s like I’m tougher on China than Trump is. It was this delusional reality that they were trying to sell and then their own party wasn’t even taking it. It was like a dealer that was not even willing to shoot up their own supply and they wanted Americans to believe it and it was literally insane. And so that’s what she’s going to lose. Fundamentally, the Americans in this age and this epoch that we’re in, what they care about is authenticity. They care that you’re real because they think so much stuff’s untrue. You just mentioned something like that, the hierarchy of victim classes where the people on the highest side are the most, you could say mentally disconnected from physics and physical reality. And so they’re drawn to politicians. They’re just real. And that’s why a OC who I don’t like is so popular is she’s doing makeup on TikTok. She’s a dumb bartender and that’s just who she is. You’re never going to get a great intellectual monologue. She’ll try and kind of laugh at her, right? She, yeah,
(14:41):
She tries, but she’s just like, oh my god. Politics. Right?
Sevan Matossian (14:46):
Lemme play a clip, Aaron here. That shows you what a chameleon I, and I can’t believe CNN actually ran this shows what a great chameleon Kamala is. This is her two takes on Gaza, depending on what state she’s in. Here we go.
Speaker 5 (15:01):
Six messages, trial investigation this hour finds Kamala Harris is targeting crucial battleground voters with vastly different messages on Gaza and Israel. This ad is running in Michigan, which has the largest Arab population in America.
Speaker 6 (15:18):
What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.
Speaker 5 (15:31):
Alright, well, it’s a very different story for an ad in Pennsylvania targeting Jewish voters.
Speaker 6 (15:38):
Let me be clear. I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself, and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself because the people of Israel must never again face the horror that a terrorist organization called Hamas calls on October 7th.
Aaron Ginn (16:04):
Yeah, it’s a message. I said She doesn’t pick the most logical running page, which was Governor Shapiro because of the Jew Muslim problem in their party.
Sevan Matossian (16:17):
Pick Shapiro is what you’re saying?
Aaron Ginn (16:19):
Yeah. Everyone the would say Shapiro, because she needed Pennsylvania. She knew Pennsylvania to win Federman, who frankly I’m happy. I was surprised. Fetterman’s ended up being a very solid senator for, although
Sevan Matossian (16:33):
I watched 30 minutes of his Rogan interview, he is a full blown retard. He’s
Aaron Ginn (16:40):
Broken. And that tells you something about Harris where she didn’t want go on Rogan. She goes on SN L, which is playing to her bass, right? Because her bass is showing and they send Betterman. They’re like, how do you send Betterman? But then you don’t want to show up, right?
Sevan Matossian (16:54):
That’s what that was. That was, yeah.
Aaron Ginn (16:56):
Yeah. They needed somebody to show up.
Sevan Matossian (16:59):
Wow. The interview only went two hours. I never feel sorry for Joe. He’s a bad motherfucker. But I felt sorry for him. I was like, I mean,
Aaron Ginn (17:08):
Joe ran the interview, right?
Sevan Matossian (17:10):
Yeah. This is really sad. I mean, he had to keep asking questions over and over because Federman couldn’t understand the questions.
Aaron Ginn (17:18):
So what’s interesting about this Jewish mushroom balls, one is I’m one of the two Americans that I actually have been to Gaza, I’ve been to Israel, been to Lebanon, I’ve been to all around the region, and you can do that when you have a military guided tour. So
Sevan Matossian (17:35):
When did you go, when you go
Aaron Ginn (17:37):
It in 2018 or 2019.
Sevan Matossian (17:41):
Okay.
Aaron Ginn (17:43):
So Gaza was already fully run by the, and all sort of alternative because alternative government entities like Hamas, but the West Bank was still overwhelmingly dominantly controlled by the pa. But if there was actually a poll dawn towards a of Americans, and it was 50 50. So she basically san her political chances over that it was a nationwide poll of Arab Americans and it was 50 50, 50 50 hertz. So she literally made the completely wrong decision and picked waltz who is not only one of the worst retail politicians, retail politicians as governor, but has a horrible track record on crime and all the main things like immigration. What he said about Somalis and playing soccer, it was just a huge meme in the underground red pilled world. He’s literally the opposite of what you need on any of these issues. And they’re trying to pretend like he’s some gun hunting and he doesn’t even know how to load a shotgun.
(18:53):
And then you had Shapiro here, which was like, he’s a Zionist. He’s a relatively moderate Democrat. I mean, again, if I looked at, I wouldn’t vote for him, but he’s like within the spectrum, he’s more normal. He’s a more normal liberal like Federman. He’s not someone great like cinema, but he’s pretty good for a Democrat. But they don’t pick him because the Jewish problem, because the height of when she was you needed to pick a running mate was during obviously the beginning of the renewed war in Israel. And again, even this Palestinian issue, where does it even go? I don’t even understand what the argument is for the pro-Palestinian side. What do you want now? You want the most stable democratic free, capitalistic country in the whole region of all 30 countries. You want to just sit there and let this disaster constantly unroll and attack other Arabs in the other free country. No even argument they’re making just like, oh, Israel’s mean and they’re bad. And after the October attack of last year, I didn’t really understand how prevalent anti antisemitism truly is. But after that there was literally no argument other than that you just don’t like Jews. You just think they’re just
Sevan Matossian (20:16):
Mean. That’s funny. Say that I didn’t realize that either. My wife’s Jewish and she always tells me that it exists and I tell her, no, it does not exist. I said, Jews just want to be different. They’re just white people. There’s no such thing as antisemitism. I had no idea that there was actually antisemitism. And you’re right, people just want to hate Arabs are killed all the time by Arabs and no one ever stands up the second the Jews kill some, it’s fucking on like Donkey Kong.
Aaron Ginn (20:44):
Even though again, and Israel Arabs are full citizens, they occupy 10 to 15% of the population and they have full rights in Israel. They have a very liberal supreme court that is basically, we had the liberal Supreme Court here. If you go, this is the total bullshit of this whole freaking argument. If you go to Jordan, if you go to Saudi Arabia, if you go to UAE, if you talk to anyone in power there, they love Israel. They’re like, Israel is great. We’re so happy they’re here. They’re so normal and they want peace. And then all the people there though, they go get up in arms about something again of like, but what’s the argument? There’s literally no entity on the Hamas side. There is no government, there’s nothing functional there. It’s just literally, it’s like Somalia on the fricking border of Israel. And so what do you want? And there is no clear argument anymore. I just don’t like juice. That’s literally what we’re at now.
Sevan Matossian (21:41):
And if you’re rich, you want stability If you have stuff, and that’s
Aaron Ginn (21:45):
What they want.
Sevan Matossian (21:46):
That as a 19-year-old or 22-year-old living in a motor home, I didn’t give a fuck about stability. But now that I have some money and three kids, I want stability. And I’m assuming that the wealthy nations around Israel, regardless of their religious or ethnic Ben, they want stability. And Israel offers stability.
Aaron Ginn (22:03):
Yes. And Israel’s reasonable. They’re not irrational and they have the biggest enemy and threat to the stability in the region is not Israel, it’s Iran and everybody around Israel, all those countries know that. And they all believe that. And even Turkey. Turkey, which is very publicly hostile to Israel and continues to even send weapons to people if you go to true diplomats in the region, the people in Turkey that actually matter and are behind the scenes. Yeah, it was actually a really great, in the very reasonable deal with, because you think that’s how they got to where they are, is that they are the western power in that region. And Western powers want stability, peace, they want human rights. They don’t like war. These are all basic concepts within the west and that’s what they believe. But the fact that Harris decided to not do that because it’s the height of the beginning of the renewal war was the thing that killed her campaign. She was on this, this stupid campaign of Joyce nonsense, and then she picked the wrong person and then of course did the classic narcissistic projection waltz of like JD Vance is weird, who actually know. I’ve known for a while that he’s weird. And he just opens this complete door to like, oh wait, you’re the weird mofo your wife and your how Vance is out
Sevan Matossian (23:34):
Of the four people. He’s the only normal one.
Aaron Ginn (23:37):
Yes. And so they did the classic narcissistic trick on just like, oh, let confuse you. And then it finds out like JD again, who is literally mastercraft in interviews. It’s one of the most amazing things to watch is him being able just to dance in front of all of these liberal mainstream people and just destroy them, but destroy them in a very different way than Trump does. Trump does. He is like, it’s funny. He’s like, he warms you through his humor and then if you really bite him though, it’s like he’s defending his family. He’s like a mobster, right? I’m going to punch you. Right. JD does it, and he’s just dancing in front of you intellectually, just jumps around is like, oh, you didn’t catch me. Try again. It’s very fun to watch. But yeah, and so their whole campaign was just a disaster. They should have pulled out Biden. Biden is clearly upset at that. He was blindsided by Nancy and Obama in 25th and whatever, and so they should just pulled out Fifth.
Sevan Matossian (24:40):
Are you talking about the 25th Amendment? You think they threatened him with that?
Aaron Ginn (24:42):
Yeah. Oh yeah. Yeah. I think that’s pretty widely accepted now that he was threatened and Jill was definitely pushing him to continue to run. And frankly, based on if he would’ve held it together in the debate more than having the meltdown did, he would still be the stronger candidate than Harris. And that tells you also the weakness of Harris, that even if an affirmed Biden would still be a stronger candidate than her, and that’s because Biden historically has been liked when the most popular senators of any state for years and years never was able to win running for primary but was likable and people related to. And again, doesn’t mean he is not a massive liar and has been bad for the country, which is I agree with those things, but you got to go to the strengths. Bernie Sanders is Bernie Sanders. You’re never going to get him to be warm and inviting in a Creel barrel.
(25:43):
He’s the guy that’s sitting at some organic coffee shop and is just yelling at you reading a lesbian book. That’s who he is. He’s mad Andre a Volvo. But Americans like that. They want that connection. Even it’s a postmodern, non-scientific, non truth oriented framework. And I don’t like those things, but it’s just the nature of where Americans are is that they want someone they can relate to. They want someone that knows them and sees them and that authentication because they feel being lied to constantly by everybody. And so that authentic connection, which is a form of a post-truth framework is why people are drawn Trump, is that him being mad on the second debate was like, oh, he’s just mad. Okay, well I get it. I’m mad too. That’s the way people left. It was like, oh, I’m mad. We’re both mad. Okay, I get it.
(26:34):
And that was it. And then it was not the Death Nails campaign. I dunno why everyone kept saying that. He actually did. In terms of Great Lakes, if you look at post debate polling there, many of the key demos that he needed, which generally are white males and low propensity voting, white males were actually liked his performance because they’re mad. And the fact that he was mad, they liked a lot. And for the people, like you said, you and me who are generally more on the higher education side in our country, we are not the target demo. We don’t matter in this election. So the fact that we are like, oh, I wouldn’t have said that that way. That’s not the people who matter in this election. It’s people who are like, yeah, I’m pissed off. I’m angry this shouldn’t happen. And that’s what he fell to on the second debate. So he still kind of got ahead. I just didn’t like that that’s the way it went down. But he fell for the bait too much was like, that was the critique of the second debate. How
Sevan Matossian (27:34):
Bad you think. How bad do you think the cheating is, Aaron? In my mind, it’s really, so if you select Des are really, I think I’m seeing some bad shit and I have acquaintances who are getting multiple ballots who aren’t citizens. I saw someone else got 16 ballots on Instagram. They were holding how bad is the cheating?
Aaron Ginn (27:56):
So it’s so bad now that pollsters in certain states add in percentages to the Democrat side. So like Trafalgar and insider advantage who have generally been the most accurate, they basically, for Philadelphia, they add in points of non-existent voters. So that’s where we are in our country is that the pollsters know that there’s outsized behavior that’s happening in their numbers based on, as an example, North Carolina, one reason why Trump is going there, Kamala Harris is not, even though the poll show it’s close, is if you look at early voting, it shows that it’s not going to be close. So there’s something going on there with that. And they looked at essentially the demographic makeup of North Carolina is very similar to Georgia. And so they’re modeling that into Georgia, which is why I think Georgia is also solidly Trump. But if you look at Atlanta stuff, they essentially just outsize increase like black turnout, the number of votes that are found.
(28:59):
And so many of them be more, you could say reasonable or more accurate pollsters that have been more favorable to Trump haven’t been including that. So the fact that Trafalgar, for example, which is generally considered Republican bolster, is including that in their numbers, tells you any still ahead. It shows you that in our country that the lie around election integrity is in tax on democracy, which is still one of the most bizarre toxic euphemisms ever heard. That’s the point is to be, to have good elections is literally the premise of democracy. It’s like, oh, you can’t criticize it. Then it’s like a North Korean phrase. Well, North Korea has elections. How dare you criticize the democracy in North Korea? That’s literally what they came and started attacking Republicans for. But there are legitimate concerns. There are never Trump republicans that live in Maricopa that literally messaged me and were like, I have always voted in person and if I go to my list of.
The above transcript is generated using AI technology and therefore may contain errors.
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